Cultural Differences and Economic Incentives: an Agent-Based Study of Their Impact on the Emergence of Regional Autonomy Movements

Explanations of the emergence of regional autonomy movements - political organizations seeking to express sub-state affinities and interests - often highlight cultural differences and economic incentives as important reasons driving regional elites and local politicians to form such organization and explain the support regional autonomy movements receive. In this paper I employ a specialized agent-based computer simulation as a laboratory for 'thought experiments' to evaluate alternative theoretical expectations of the independent and combined consequences of regional economic and cultural circumstances on the likelihood of regional mobilization. The simulations suggest that pronounced cultural differences and strong economic incentives contribute to the emergence of three independent yet related aspects of autonomy mobilization: the emergence of political boundaries, minority support, and minority clustering. Furthermore, these experiment indicate that the impact of cultural differences on the emergence of political boundaries may be contingent on the strength of the economic incentives, and visa versa.Autonomy Movements, Ethno-Regional Mobilization, Constructivism, Agent-Based Modeling, Collective Identity

Between Replication and Docking: "Adaptive Agents, Political Institutions, and Civic Traditions" Revisited

This article has two primary objectives: (i) to replicate an agent-based model of social interaction by Bhavnani (2003), in which the author explicitly specifies mechanisms underpinning Robert Putnam\'s (1993) work on Civic Traditions in Modern Italy, bridging the gap between the study\'s historical starting point—political regimes that characterized 14th Century Italy—and contemporary levels of social capital—reflected in a \'civic\' North and an \'un-civic\' South; and (ii) to extend the original analysis, using a landscape of Italy that accounts for population density. The replication exercise is performed by different authors using an entirely distinct ABM toolkit (PS-I) with its own rule set governing agent-interaction and cultural change. The extension, which more closely approximates a docking exercise, utilizes equal area cartograms otherwise known as density-equalizing maps (Gastner and Newman 2004) to resize the territory according to 1993 population estimates. Our results indicate that: (i) using the criterion of distributional equivalence, we experience mixed success in replicating the original model given our inability to restrict the selection of partners to \'eligible\' neighbors and limit the number of agent interactions in a timestep; (ii) increasing the number of agents and introducing more realistic population distributions in our extension of the replication model increases distributional equivalence; (iii) using the weaker criteria of relational alignment, both the replication model and its extension capture the basic relationship between institutional effectiveness and civic change, the effect of open boundaries, historical shocks, and path dependence; and (iv) that replication and docking may be usefully combined in model-to-model analysis, with an eye towards verification, reimplementation, and alignment.Replication, Docking, Agent-Based Model, Italy, Social Capital

REsCape: an Agent-Based Framework for Modeling Resources, Ethnicity, and Conflict

This research note provides a general introduction to REsCape: an agent-based computational framework for studying the relationship between natural resources, ethnicity, and civil war. By permitting the user to specify: (i) different resource profiles ranging from a purely agrarian economy to one based on the artisanal or industrial extraction of alluvial or kimberlite diamonds; (ii) different patterns of ethnic domination, ethnic polarization, and varying degrees of ethnic salience; as well as (iii) specific modes of play for key agents, the framework can be used to assess the effects of key variables — whether taken in isolation or in various combinations — on the onset and duration of civil war. Our objective is to make REsCape available as an open source toolkit in the future, one that can be used, modified, and refined by students and scholars of civil war.Agent-Based Model, Ethnicity, Salience, Polarization, Domination, Civil War, Greed, Natural Resources

Geographies of violence in Jerusalem: The spatial logic of urban intergroup conflict

This paper assesses how spatial configurations shape and transform individual and collective forms of urban violence, suggesting that geographies of urban violence should be understood as an issue of mobility. We document and map violent events in Jerusalem, assessing the possible impact of street patterns: segmenting populations, linking populations, and creating spaces for conflict between the city's Jewish and Palestinian populations. Using space syntax network analysis, we demonstrate that, in the case of Jerusalem, street connectivity is positively associated with individual violence yet negatively associated with collective violence. Our findings suggest that understanding the logic of urban intergroup violence requires us to pay close attention to local urban morphology and its impact on intergroup relations in ethnically divided and heterogeneous environments

The emergence of demands for regional autonomy: Computer simulation and European evaluation

Previous attempts to explain regional autonomy mobilization have produced inconsistent and contradictory findings. Scholars disagree on the role that cultural, economic and political mechanisms play in regional politicians\u27 demands for autonomy, and in the popular appeal of autonomist agendas. Moreover, lack of scholarly consensus hinders the efforts of policy-makers in shaping appropriate institutional responses to demands raised by supporters of autonomy and self-determination. For every policy recommendation, there are studies showing that it would either work well or work terribly. This project contributes to the explanation of regional autonomy mobilization in three ways. First, it offers a theoretical synthesis of cultural, economic and political factors into a framework that specifies their interdependence. Second, it evaluates systematically theoretical propositions using an agent-based simulation methodology (ABM). Third, it substantiates these explanations with data collected across 113 regions in nine European states. Results lend strong support to the theoretical synthesis. The effects of cultural, economic and political factors are interdependent—for example, the effect of cultural differences on mobilization depends on economic strength of a region—as evidenced in both simulations and real-world data. The project concludes with highlighting the utility of ABM to complement other approaches to the study of complex sociopolitical phenomena

The emergence of demands for regional autonomy: Computer simulation and European evaluation

Previous attempts to explain regional autonomy mobilization have produced inconsistent and contradictory findings. Scholars disagree on the role that cultural, economic and political mechanisms play in regional politicians\u27 demands for autonomy, and in the popular appeal of autonomist agendas. Moreover, lack of scholarly consensus hinders the efforts of policy-makers in shaping appropriate institutional responses to demands raised by supporters of autonomy and self-determination. For every policy recommendation, there are studies showing that it would either work well or work terribly. This project contributes to the explanation of regional autonomy mobilization in three ways. First, it offers a theoretical synthesis of cultural, economic and political factors into a framework that specifies their interdependence. Second, it evaluates systematically theoretical propositions using an agent-based simulation methodology (ABM). Third, it substantiates these explanations with data collected across 113 regions in nine European states. Results lend strong support to the theoretical synthesis. The effects of cultural, economic and political factors are interdependent—for example, the effect of cultural differences on mobilization depends on economic strength of a region—as evidenced in both simulations and real-world data. The project concludes with highlighting the utility of ABM to complement other approaches to the study of complex sociopolitical phenomena

Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset How Identity Salience, Fiscal Policy, and Natural Resource Profiles Moderate Outcomes

Using an agent-based computational framework designed to explore the incidence of conflict between two nominally rival ethnic groups, we demonstrate that the impact of ethnic minority rule on civil war onset could be more nuanced than posited in the literature. By testing the effects of three key moderating variables on ethnic minority rule, our analysis demonstrates that: (i) when ethnicity is assumed to be salient for all individuals, conflict onset increases with size of the minority in power, although when salience is permitted to vary, onset decreases as minority and majority approach parity; (ii) fiscal policy—the spending and investment decisions of the minority EGIP—moderates conflict; conflict decreases when leaders make sound decisions, increases under corrupt regimes, and peaks under ethno-nationalist regimes that place a premium on territorial conquest; and lastly (iii) natural resources—their type and distribution—affect the level of conflict which is lowest in agrarian economies, higher in the presence of lootable resources, and still higher when lootable resource are “diffuseâ€. Our analysis generates a set of propositions to be tested empirically, subject to data availability.agent-based modeling; civil war; ethnic minority rule; political exclusion

Three Two Tango: Territorial Control and Selective Violence in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza

This article extends the formal logic of Stathis Kalyvas’ theory of selective violence to account for three political actors with asymmetric capabilities. In contrast to Kalyvas’ theory, the authors’ computer simulation suggests that (1) selective violence by the stronger actor will be concentrated in areas where weaker actors exercise control; (2) the relative level of selective violence used by weaker actors will be lower because of a reduced capacity to induce civilian collaboration; and (3) areas of parity among the three actors will exhibit low levels of selective violence perpetrated primarily by the strongest actor. Results from a logistic regression, using empirical data on Israel and two rival Palestinian factions from 2006 to 2008, are consistent with these predictions: Israel was more likely to use selective violence in areas largely controlled by Palestinian factions; zones of incomplete Israeli control were not prone to selective violence; and zones of mixed control witnessed moderate levels of selective violence, mainly by Israel. Nonetheless, Palestinian violence remained consistent with Kalyvas’ predictions.violence; control; Israel; West Bank; Gaza; agent-based model